Rochester political scientists explain why people do and donāt exercise their right to voteāand the implications of that choice for democracy.
Itās election season, when candidate lawn signs sprout in yards and political messaging seeps into news feeds. With early voting underway in a contentious presidential race, many Americans are preparing to visit their polling place to cast their ballot (and score their āI Votedā sticker). Some will party (or not) like itās 1907, if one can trust the Ā in the at the °µĶų³Ō¹Ļ.
Yet for other voters, Election Day is just another Tuesday.
What does voter turnout mean?
Technically, āvoter turnout is the number of people who cast ballots in any given election,ā says , an assistant professor of at the °µĶų³Ō¹Ļ.
In the United States, the voting-eligible population comprises citizens of the right age, who are not convicted of a felonyāthough this depends on state lawāand not mentally incapacitated. āBut itās hard to get that granular with numbers, so the voter turnout rate is typically calculated as the number of ballots cast divided by the voting-age population,ā she says. āIf high turnout is the harbinger of a healthy democracy, we want a high percentage of voter turnout.ā
Since 1980, voter turnout for US presidential elections has of eligible votersāwith the exception of 2020, when it reached a record high of 67 percent. (Midterm elections draw significantly fewer voters.)
āTurnout in the US is not super-high relative to other democracies, like in Australia, where voting is compulsory with a fine for not participating,ā says Komisarchik.
Even without a slap on the wrist, why arenāt more US citizens voting?
āGiven that weāre talking about 51 different electoral systems (each state plus Washington DC) with multi-pronged processes, various restrictions, and lots of contestation, the voter turnout rate doesnāt surprise me,ā says , the Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science. āStates vary dramatically in terms of their registration laws, early voting policies, access to polls, even when absentee ballots are counted.ā
Scheduling is also a factor: In some places, local elections are timed to coincide with midterm or presidential ones, while in other places they are staggered in different years.
Add to this tangle the countryās history of constricted ballot access and voter suppression, through legal means and otherwise: literacy tests with subjective scoring, character witnesses (also subjective), and to the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965. The finer points of āā can even penalize distributing water at a polling line.
In the lead-up to Election Day, here are several key points about voter turnout and why itās important.
Voter ādeclineā is often really voter disenfranchisement.
Extending the franchiseāor giving more people the right to voteāis one way to influence voter turnout.
In 1870, the to the US Constitution acknowledged the right of formerly enslaved African American men to vote. Fifty years later, in 1920, the was ratified, legally guaranteeing American women the right to vote, a longstanding goal of the . (Susan B. Anthony was a key player in the movement. On November 5, 1872āwell before the 19th Amendmentās ratificationāAnthony marched to the polls near her home in Rochester, New York, demanding to vote in the presidential election. She cast her vote, but was subsequently arrested, charged, and indicted.)
Conversely, disenfranchising people can also affect voter turnout.
āBecause we often divide voters by the entire voting-age population, voter turnout appeared to decline through the 1970s, 80s, and 90s,ā says Druckman. āIn reality, this is explained by the growing disenfranchisement rate of felons.ā
Only in Maine, Vermont, and Washington, DC, do people convicted of a felony never lose their right to vote. In other states, convicted felons are ineligible to vote either while incarcerated, for a period of time after release, or indefinitely.
When it comes to the calculus of voting, participation trumps āpivotality.ā
In US elections, some states are reliably āblueā or āredāāthat is, the results of the state elections tend to be more Democratic or Republican, respectively. By contrast, āpurpleā or āswingā states are those where either the Democratic or Republican candidates could win a statewide election. In these so-called battleground states, the difference between winning and losing can come down to a few thousandāor even hundredāvotes.
Why, then, would anyone in a blue or red state bother to cast a ballot, knowing their vote isnāt pivotal to the election results? Is the act of voting an irrational one if you know your vote isnāt pivotal?
Enter the rational choice theory, a scientific model of political behavior that assumes people make decisions based on their calculations of costs and benefits. William Riker, an American political scientist at the University of Rochester from 1962 to 1993, is considered the founder of rational choice theory. He used economic and game-theoretic approaches to develop mathematical models of politics, including the . In doing so, he founded an entirely new subfield of political science in the 1960sāone that continues to influence the discipline today.
āRational choice theory is an umbrella term for considering instrumental motivations that voters might have. In other words, what compels a person to vote?ā explains , an associate professor of political science at Rochester.
Those motivations could vary anywhere from getting personal satisfaction from participating in the democratic process to thinking your vote will make the difference in a particular election. The latter āis a narrower definition of instrumentality,ā says Tyson. āWhat is the likelihood that I am pivotal in this election? If my vote is pivotal for Candidate A, that means half of all voters will vote for Candidate B. And that means that public opinion is more divided than I thought. So, when my vote āmattersā the most, my knowledge that itās ārightā may be the least secure.ā
Voting behavior has evolved from private decision to team sport.
āMore recently, voting has taken on an event-based, participatory aspect,ā says Tyson. Thereās a difference between attending a concert or game in person versus streaming it on YouTube. āItās just not the same,ā he says. Likewise with voting today.
The aforementioned Riker-Ordeshook model of political scienceāalso called the paradox of votingāascribes most of the benefit of voting to the act itself, rather than to the outcome of the election. Even when a voter knows they wonāt change the outcome, they still get some value from the actāwhether thatās securing the coveted āI Votedā sticker or posting a selfie on social media (after clearing the electioneering zone, of course).
According to Tyson, todayās political advertisements reinforce the notion of voting behavior as a team sport or stadium concert, rather than reflective decision-making. āVery few ads seem designed to persuade independent voters to cast their vote one way or another,ā he says. āInstead, they seem to ask: āAre you going to turn out for your candidate on Election Day? Will we see you in the arena?āā
From drizzle to deluge, the weather forecast matters for voter turnout.
āOn a rainy and cold day, people are less likely to stand outside the polling place in long lines,ā says Komisarchik. And when handing out water and snacks is perceived as risky, people may not wait outside on sweltering Tuesdays, either.
Extreme weather events can impact voting behavior even more profoundly. āSometimes there are natural disasters right around Election Day, like tornadoes, where officials need to consolidate voting places as shelters,ā says Komisarchik. For example, during the Super Tuesday Democratic Party presidential primaries in 2020, in Nashville, Tennessee, forced the closing and consolidating of polling stations, leaving voters and election officials scrambling to navigate both dangerous conditions and thorny logistics.
Younger people tend to vote less (sorry, Bernie).
āVoting habituates,ā says Druckman. āThe key determinant of voting in any given election is whether you have voted before.ā
So, which voters reliably show up to exercise their civic duty?
āIn general, the people who are most likely to turn outāand turn out in most elections, from presidential to midterms to primaries to local racesāare college-educated suburban homeowners,ā says Komisarchik. āThey are stakeholders, who have lived somewhere for a long time and put down roots.ā
Turnout rates also increase along with votersā
Younger voters between ages 18 and 29, conversely, tend to vote less. āThis is the bane of Bernie Sandersā campaign. If your life is in flux without a fixed address, youāre less likely to vote.ā
People over the age of 45 are the highest-propensity voter, Komisarchik says. And despite efforts to enforce (and protect) the Voting Rights Act, āracial gaps do persist. By and large, itās still the case that white voters are most likely to turn out.ā Data shows that the , specifically for midterm elections.
Low voter turnout used to benefit Republicans. Now it favors Democrats.
āPolitical scientists used to think that low-turnoutĀ elections were marginally better for the Republican party,ā says Komisarchik. āHistorically, it was the case that all college-educated homeowner suburban votes were Republican. But in the Trump years, there has been a realignment and those places now tend to go Democrat.ā
One of the late in Trumpās campaign, she notes, has been anti-transgender attack ads. Komisarchik says, āThat does not look like an effort to win back suburbanĀ voters who value affordable childcare or accessible health care.ā
This realignment will likely persist for a while, she says, with political, societal, and historical implications still playing out in real-time.
Same-day registration boosts voter turnout.
Same-day registration allows voters to register and vote at the same time, usually on Election Day itself. This voting option, currently available in 23 states and Washington, DC, is the strategy that āconsistently has the most positive impact, from what Iāve seen,ā says Komisarchik.
For states without this option, campaigns should try the opposite tactic. According to Komisarchik, suggests that one way to reduce the āmental loadā for voters is to encourage them to make a written plan in advance.
āThis includes when they will vote, the confirmed location of their polling place, and how they will get to the polls. Providing them with rides, registration information, and other means to reduce their āmental loadā will also help,ā she says.
Without a paper trail, trust in elections and democracy suffers.
If voting migrated online for convenience, would turnout improve? Maybeābut donāt count on seeing a ballot box icon next to the Amazon button on your home screen.
āThe tricky thing about voting is that if we removed all logistics and other ācosts,ā it would be easier,ā Komisarchik allows. āPeople could vote from the convenience of their homes. However, we also need elections to be secure, auditable, and verifiableāwith a āpaper trail.ā tell us that the most secure way to vote is on paper.ā
The tangible evidence of a paper trail makes it more difficult for a foreign power or bad actors to interfere, she explains, while simplifying post-election audits. āThey would have to break into polling stations and steal the physical ballots, as opposed to remotely hacking a server. In a world of eroding trust and mounting disinformation, paper ballots actually give us security.ā
Meet your experts
James Druckman
Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science
An expert in political behavior and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Druckman studies public opinion formation, political polarization, political and scientific communication, political psychology, and experimental and survey methods. He has published approximately 200 articles and book chapters. His latest coauthored book, Partisan Hostility and American Democracy: Explaining Political Divisions and When They Matter (University of Chicago), was published in 2024.
Mayya Komisarchik
Assistant Professor of Political Science
Komisarchikās research interests cover representation, voting rights, race and ethnic politics, policing, immigration, and political incorporation. Her recent work has addressed changing electoral rules in southern counties in the wake of the Voting Rights Act, the lasting effects of Japanese-American internment, representativeness in policing, and the political incorporation of immigrants to the United States. Her work appears in the American Journal of Political ScienceĀ and theĀ Journal of Politics.
Scott Tyson
Associate Professor of Political Science
Tysonās research focuses on formal political theory, political economy, conflict, authoritarian politics, external validity, and experimental design. He has authored or coauthored scholarly articles that have appeared in the Journal of Politics, American Journal of Political Science, American Political Science Review, Political Science Research and Methods, and PS: Political Science and Politics.
