Rochester voices in The New Yorker<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\u201cThis will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesn\u2019t get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward,” Hein Goemans tells the New Yorker<\/em>. \u201cIf Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n- Read the full story.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
He says the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. \u201cMost people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely,\u201d says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War<\/em> (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict<\/em> (Cambridge University Press, 2011).<\/p>\nBut that\u2019s not true. \u201cIf I fight a war with you and do poorly\u2014but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me\u2014then I\u2019m not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Likewise, Putin\u2019s sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, according to Goemans. \u201cHe\u2019ll propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. That\u2019s for domestic consumption in Russia; he\u2019s just posturing.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nUkraine update: Q&A with Hein Goemans<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nRussian forces hastily retreated in mid-September from Ukraine\u2019s Kharkiv region, in the northeast. Is that possibly signaling the end of the war?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- While unexpected, this Ukrainian battle victory is not the beginning of the end of the war.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> No, it\u2019s not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. But you don\u2019t just kill the enemy and that\u2019s that. You need the opponents to change their mind. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. While the terms may have shifted in Ukraine\u2019s favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before.<\/p>\n
\nHow do expectations affect war strategy and the likelihood of peace?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![\"Hein](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/goemans-300x350-1.jpg\")
Hein Goemans.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nGoemans:<\/strong> Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. But that\u2019s not the right way to look at it. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorly\u2014but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me\u2014then I\u2019m not going to change my war game. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. That\u2019s the fundamental thing. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.<\/p>\nA good example is the Yom Kippur War<\/a> of 1974. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. Yet the Egyptians got the Sinai back. You ask\u2014how is that possible? Well, it\u2019s because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. What happened was a change in expectations.<\/p>\n
\nWhat do you make of Putin\u2019s calls for a cease-fire? Do the latest sham referenda in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south, and in the pro-Russian, separatist \u201crepublics\u201d\u00a0in Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine make a faster end to the war more likely?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Neither is likely to speed up a cease-fire.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> No. I still expect the war to last at least another year, maybe two. Both sides still have plans and ideas to test before their expectations are likely to converge. On Putin\u2019s side, he may still expect Europe\u2019s unity to crumble and try to force Ukraine to lower its minimum demands, especially if he can freeze them over the winter as a result of the lack of Russian natural gas. He\u2019ll propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. That\u2019s for domestic consumption in Russia; he\u2019s just posturing.<\/p>\nI\u2019m not a foreign policy expert, but he probably does this because his massive mobilization is deeply unpopular among the Russian people. He has to find a way to say to his domestic audience something along the lines of, \u201cI have to do this. My hands are forced. I\u2019m trying honestly to make peace so it\u2019s not my fault. It\u2019s the fault of the \u2018evil Ukrainian Nazis.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Ultimately, I think Putin\u2019s trying to strengthen his bargaining position with the sham referenda and illegal annexations. If it had been a fair referendum under United Nations\u2019 supervision\u2014that might have had an effect. But not like this. I mean\u2014voting was held with guards with machine guns at the polling stations and we\u2019ve seen reports of men with guns at people\u2019s doors, forcing Ukrainians to fill out ballots while being watched. That sends a clear message.<\/p>\n![\"Ukraine](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/inline-how-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end.jpg\")
A Ukrainian mechanic test drives a repaired Russian tank in a wooded area outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in September. (Getty Images photo \/ Paula Bronstein)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\nWar termination\u2014so the theory goes\u2014is about finding the thing what makes both sides agree to stop fighting. How does that work?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Essentially, one side must get the other to change their mind and to convince them that striking a deal now is better than to continue fighting. \u201cIt’s the best explanation we have so far. But it\u2019s not satisfying.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Generally speaking, war provides information and shows the truth\u2014the opponent\u2019s cards\u2014because there\u2019s no more bluffing. We learn things about our opponent that we wouldn\u2019t have known had we not fought. You can see your foe\u2019s true strength on the battlefield: whose forces are stronger, how good are their tanks, how capable are their generals\u2014all that becomes public knowledge. That\u2019s the prerequisite for peace; you can strike a deal because both sides now know the truth.<\/p>\nThat\u2019s the theory, at least. But I\u2019ve come to see that intuitive kind of view as insufficient.<\/p>\n
We know that some leaders continue fighting for their own survival, against the very interests of their country and their own people. We saw that in Germany in the First and Second World War and also in Japan during World War II. We political scientists hold that opponents fight in order to find that something that makes peace possible. But what really is that? One side must get the other to change its mind. You must get them to agree that making a deal now is better than to continue fighting. I think it\u2019s the best explanation we have so far. But it\u2019s not satisfying.<\/p>\n
\nYou\u2019ve written extensively about certain leaders \u201cgambling for resurrection.\u201d\u00a0How does that idea apply in Putin\u2019s case?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Leaders continue with an unwinnable war, against their country\u2019s interests, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\u201c<\/span>Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, I\u2019m not sure that these hawks wouldn\u2019t simply escalate the war and press on.\u201d<\/div>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> He\u2019s boxed himself in. If Putin loses in Ukraine he\u2019ll fall from power, and likely end up being killed. Leaders in such situations \u201cgamble for resurrection,\u201d which means they continue with a war, often at greater intensity and brutality, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death. It reminds me of the case of Germany in the First World War where just four months into the war Kaiser Wilhelm II and his cabinet concluded that it was unwinnable. Yet, they fought on for another four years. Why? Because they knew that if they lost, they would be overthrown by a revolution. Of course, they were right. Leaders in such unwinnable situations are very dangerous. They are the reason that World War I dragged on much longer than it should have. That\u2019s why Putin is so dangerous.<\/p>\n
\nHas Putin become more dangerous with Russia\u2019s recent losses in northeastern Ukraine?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Putin is boxed in and can\u2019t really make a peace deal.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> He\u2019s certainly doubling down. He\u2019s painted himself into a corner and can\u2019t really make a peace deal. According to classic war-termination theory, three variables have to be considered\u2014information, credible commitment, and domestic politics. As long as both sides believe they can win, which clearly they do, and their distrust for each other is growing\u2014think of the recently discovered mass graves and reports of torture by Russian soldiers\u2014there will be no peace.<\/p>\nPutin also has a domestic problem. Originally, he delayed mass mobilization to avoid domestic unrest, against the advice of the political hawks in the Kremlin who want a larger-scale war. Over the past week, more than 200,000 Russians have fled their country to avoid conscription. Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, I\u2019m not sure that these hawks wouldn\u2019t simply escalate the war and press on. It scares the [expletive] out of me because these people talk about nukes and about attacking Poland and Latvia, Lithuania, and about nuking Paris and London. They are nuts.<\/p>\n
\nDo the hawks in the Kremlin think Russia can survive an escalation that includes nuclear strikes?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- \u201c[P]eople in Washington have said very clearly . . . that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> The hawks in the Kremlin think the war has been fought wrongly or poorly. And in a sense, they are right. The Russian army is just a very weak, poor army. What worries me is that if Russia continues to have to retreat from occupied territory, a small, tactical nuclear strike becomes a real possibility\u2014in an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances. My friend, Branislav Slantchev<\/a> [a Rochester PhD and now a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego], has written about this in a recent, terrifying blog post<\/a>. In that scenario, he said, he expects the Russians to use a nuclear weapon under 1 kiloton, which he says one could fire with artillery or any of the multiple dual-use rockets and missiles the Russians have in their arsenal. He\u2019s got a very good eye and good ears. He\u2019s scared. As am I.<\/p>\nOf course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have to spell it out like that.<\/p>\n![\"Map](\"https:\/\/www.rochester.edu\/newscenter\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/inline-when-will-war-in-ukraine-end.jpg\")
(做厙勛圖 illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\nThe outcome of this war could have \u201cmassive consequences\u201d for Europe, the world. How?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- The consequences depend on whether Russia wins or loses, and on whether Ukraine survives or is dismembered.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Well, let\u2019s start with the worst-case scenario\u2014if Russia wins and Ukraine is dismembered or wiped out. As a result, the whole security infrastructure in Europe would crumble with direct repercussions for NATO, European Union cohesion, Germany, and the Middle East. All these policies that have led to peaceful cooperation will all be thrown out, creating instability in Europe and affect the United States deeply. And, of course, other would-be dictators would learn from Putin\u2019s example. A large part of the stability that we saw during the Cold War era was based on the expectation that the situation would be stable. It was stable because we expected it to be stable. But that\u2019s clearly no longer the case.<\/p>\nIn the best-case scenario Ukraine wins a better deal than before the war. For me that means more defensible borders, which would mean some form of continued Western presence and the arming of Ukraine by the West, along with training and funding. All that would create a much more stable Europe. I hope that the extremists in Russia would have learned a lesson and everybody in Europe would be on their guard with respect to Russia for another generation or two.<\/p>\n
\nHow is the war in Ukraine affecting Russia, the Russian people?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Putin is \u201cgambling with Russia\u2019s future\u201d in both social and economic terms.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Putin is gambling with Russia\u2019s future. On top of the sanctions, the brain drain is tremendous, as is the exodus of young and middle-aged, educated males who have the means and who are worried about being conscripted. Add to that the mounting numbers of dead soldiers: Russia is going to have an acute shortage of men, which will create all kinds of economic and societal problems.<\/p>\n
\nWhat\u2019s the best Russia can hope to achieve?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n- Maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. But \u201cI don\u2019t want to advocate for this.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Their army is poor, their equipment is rotten, and the sanctions make it impossible to build new equipment, to update their machinery. The best they can hope for? Well, I don\u2019t want to advocate for this, of course, but maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. That\u2019s the very best they could get. But I don\u2019t think the Ukrainians would ever accept plebiscites in Luhansk and Donetsk and the areas\u2019 possibly going to Russia. The question is, what would the Ukrainians accept for Crimea? I don\u2019t know. Ukraine\u2019s Zelensky has basically said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea so that ties his hands, otherwise people would say, \u201cyou betrayed us.\u201d If Zelensky accepted peace terms right now, he\u2019d be out of office in a day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Political scientist Hein Goemans discusses the \u2018massive consequences\u2019 for Europe\u2014and the world\u2014of continued war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":942,"featured_media":536552,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456],"tags":[21462,4626,21822,16072],"class_list":["post-536402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society-culture","tag-department-of-political-science","tag-featured-post","tag-hein-goemans","tag-school-of-arts-and-sciences"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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- \n
- Read the full story.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
He says the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. \u201cMost people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely,\u201d says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War<\/em> (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict<\/em> (Cambridge University Press, 2011).<\/p>\n
But that\u2019s not true. \u201cIf I fight a war with you and do poorly\u2014but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me\u2014then I\u2019m not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Likewise, Putin\u2019s sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, according to Goemans. \u201cHe\u2019ll propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. That\u2019s for domestic consumption in Russia; he\u2019s just posturing.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nUkraine update: Q&A with Hein Goemans<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nRussian forces hastily retreated in mid-September from Ukraine\u2019s Kharkiv region, in the northeast. Is that possibly signaling the end of the war?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- While unexpected, this Ukrainian battle victory is not the beginning of the end of the war.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> No, it\u2019s not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. But you don\u2019t just kill the enemy and that\u2019s that. You need the opponents to change their mind. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. While the terms may have shifted in Ukraine\u2019s favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before.<\/p>\n
\nHow do expectations affect war strategy and the likelihood of peace?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Hein Goemans.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Goemans:<\/strong> Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. But that\u2019s not the right way to look at it. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorly\u2014but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me\u2014then I\u2019m not going to change my war game. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. That\u2019s the fundamental thing. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.<\/p>\n
A good example is the Yom Kippur War<\/a> of 1974. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. Yet the Egyptians got the Sinai back. You ask\u2014how is that possible? Well, it\u2019s because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. What happened was a change in expectations.<\/p>\n
\nWhat do you make of Putin\u2019s calls for a cease-fire? Do the latest sham referenda in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south, and in the pro-Russian, separatist \u201crepublics\u201d\u00a0in Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine make a faster end to the war more likely?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Neither is likely to speed up a cease-fire.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> No. I still expect the war to last at least another year, maybe two. Both sides still have plans and ideas to test before their expectations are likely to converge. On Putin\u2019s side, he may still expect Europe\u2019s unity to crumble and try to force Ukraine to lower its minimum demands, especially if he can freeze them over the winter as a result of the lack of Russian natural gas. He\u2019ll propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. That\u2019s for domestic consumption in Russia; he\u2019s just posturing.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not a foreign policy expert, but he probably does this because his massive mobilization is deeply unpopular among the Russian people. He has to find a way to say to his domestic audience something along the lines of, \u201cI have to do this. My hands are forced. I\u2019m trying honestly to make peace so it\u2019s not my fault. It\u2019s the fault of the \u2018evil Ukrainian Nazis.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Ultimately, I think Putin\u2019s trying to strengthen his bargaining position with the sham referenda and illegal annexations. If it had been a fair referendum under United Nations\u2019 supervision\u2014that might have had an effect. But not like this. I mean\u2014voting was held with guards with machine guns at the polling stations and we\u2019ve seen reports of men with guns at people\u2019s doors, forcing Ukrainians to fill out ballots while being watched. That sends a clear message.<\/p>\n
A Ukrainian mechanic test drives a repaired Russian tank in a wooded area outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in September. (Getty Images photo \/ Paula Bronstein)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\nWar termination\u2014so the theory goes\u2014is about finding the thing what makes both sides agree to stop fighting. How does that work?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Essentially, one side must get the other to change their mind and to convince them that striking a deal now is better than to continue fighting. \u201cIt’s the best explanation we have so far. But it\u2019s not satisfying.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Generally speaking, war provides information and shows the truth\u2014the opponent\u2019s cards\u2014because there\u2019s no more bluffing. We learn things about our opponent that we wouldn\u2019t have known had we not fought. You can see your foe\u2019s true strength on the battlefield: whose forces are stronger, how good are their tanks, how capable are their generals\u2014all that becomes public knowledge. That\u2019s the prerequisite for peace; you can strike a deal because both sides now know the truth.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the theory, at least. But I\u2019ve come to see that intuitive kind of view as insufficient.<\/p>\n
We know that some leaders continue fighting for their own survival, against the very interests of their country and their own people. We saw that in Germany in the First and Second World War and also in Japan during World War II. We political scientists hold that opponents fight in order to find that something that makes peace possible. But what really is that? One side must get the other to change its mind. You must get them to agree that making a deal now is better than to continue fighting. I think it\u2019s the best explanation we have so far. But it\u2019s not satisfying.<\/p>\n
\nYou\u2019ve written extensively about certain leaders \u201cgambling for resurrection.\u201d\u00a0How does that idea apply in Putin\u2019s case?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Leaders continue with an unwinnable war, against their country\u2019s interests, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\u201c<\/span>Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, I\u2019m not sure that these hawks wouldn\u2019t simply escalate the war and press on.\u201d<\/div>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> He\u2019s boxed himself in. If Putin loses in Ukraine he\u2019ll fall from power, and likely end up being killed. Leaders in such situations \u201cgamble for resurrection,\u201d which means they continue with a war, often at greater intensity and brutality, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death. It reminds me of the case of Germany in the First World War where just four months into the war Kaiser Wilhelm II and his cabinet concluded that it was unwinnable. Yet, they fought on for another four years. Why? Because they knew that if they lost, they would be overthrown by a revolution. Of course, they were right. Leaders in such unwinnable situations are very dangerous. They are the reason that World War I dragged on much longer than it should have. That\u2019s why Putin is so dangerous.<\/p>\n
\nHas Putin become more dangerous with Russia\u2019s recent losses in northeastern Ukraine?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Putin is boxed in and can\u2019t really make a peace deal.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> He\u2019s certainly doubling down. He\u2019s painted himself into a corner and can\u2019t really make a peace deal. According to classic war-termination theory, three variables have to be considered\u2014information, credible commitment, and domestic politics. As long as both sides believe they can win, which clearly they do, and their distrust for each other is growing\u2014think of the recently discovered mass graves and reports of torture by Russian soldiers\u2014there will be no peace.<\/p>\n
Putin also has a domestic problem. Originally, he delayed mass mobilization to avoid domestic unrest, against the advice of the political hawks in the Kremlin who want a larger-scale war. Over the past week, more than 200,000 Russians have fled their country to avoid conscription. Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, I\u2019m not sure that these hawks wouldn\u2019t simply escalate the war and press on. It scares the [expletive] out of me because these people talk about nukes and about attacking Poland and Latvia, Lithuania, and about nuking Paris and London. They are nuts.<\/p>\n
\nDo the hawks in the Kremlin think Russia can survive an escalation that includes nuclear strikes?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- \u201c[P]eople in Washington have said very clearly . . . that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> The hawks in the Kremlin think the war has been fought wrongly or poorly. And in a sense, they are right. The Russian army is just a very weak, poor army. What worries me is that if Russia continues to have to retreat from occupied territory, a small, tactical nuclear strike becomes a real possibility\u2014in an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances. My friend, Branislav Slantchev<\/a> [a Rochester PhD and now a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego], has written about this in a recent, terrifying blog post<\/a>. In that scenario, he said, he expects the Russians to use a nuclear weapon under 1 kiloton, which he says one could fire with artillery or any of the multiple dual-use rockets and missiles the Russians have in their arsenal. He\u2019s got a very good eye and good ears. He\u2019s scared. As am I.<\/p>\n
Of course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have to spell it out like that.<\/p>\n
(做厙勛圖 illustration \/ Michael Osadciw)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\nThe outcome of this war could have \u201cmassive consequences\u201d for Europe, the world. How?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- The consequences depend on whether Russia wins or loses, and on whether Ukraine survives or is dismembered.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Well, let\u2019s start with the worst-case scenario\u2014if Russia wins and Ukraine is dismembered or wiped out. As a result, the whole security infrastructure in Europe would crumble with direct repercussions for NATO, European Union cohesion, Germany, and the Middle East. All these policies that have led to peaceful cooperation will all be thrown out, creating instability in Europe and affect the United States deeply. And, of course, other would-be dictators would learn from Putin\u2019s example. A large part of the stability that we saw during the Cold War era was based on the expectation that the situation would be stable. It was stable because we expected it to be stable. But that\u2019s clearly no longer the case.<\/p>\n
In the best-case scenario Ukraine wins a better deal than before the war. For me that means more defensible borders, which would mean some form of continued Western presence and the arming of Ukraine by the West, along with training and funding. All that would create a much more stable Europe. I hope that the extremists in Russia would have learned a lesson and everybody in Europe would be on their guard with respect to Russia for another generation or two.<\/p>\n
\nHow is the war in Ukraine affecting Russia, the Russian people?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Putin is \u201cgambling with Russia\u2019s future\u201d in both social and economic terms.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Putin is gambling with Russia\u2019s future. On top of the sanctions, the brain drain is tremendous, as is the exodus of young and middle-aged, educated males who have the means and who are worried about being conscripted. Add to that the mounting numbers of dead soldiers: Russia is going to have an acute shortage of men, which will create all kinds of economic and societal problems.<\/p>\n
\nWhat\u2019s the best Russia can hope to achieve?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
- \n
- Maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. But \u201cI don\u2019t want to advocate for this.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Goemans:<\/strong> Their army is poor, their equipment is rotten, and the sanctions make it impossible to build new equipment, to update their machinery. The best they can hope for? Well, I don\u2019t want to advocate for this, of course, but maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. That\u2019s the very best they could get. But I don\u2019t think the Ukrainians would ever accept plebiscites in Luhansk and Donetsk and the areas\u2019 possibly going to Russia. The question is, what would the Ukrainians accept for Crimea? I don\u2019t know. Ukraine\u2019s Zelensky has basically said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea so that ties his hands, otherwise people would say, \u201cyou betrayed us.\u201d If Zelensky accepted peace terms right now, he\u2019d be out of office in a day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Political scientist Hein Goemans discusses the \u2018massive consequences\u2019 for Europe\u2014and the world\u2014of continued war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":942,"featured_media":536552,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456],"tags":[21462,4626,21822,16072],"class_list":["post-536402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society-culture","tag-department-of-political-science","tag-featured-post","tag-hein-goemans","tag-school-of-arts-and-sciences"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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- Maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. But \u201cI don\u2019t want to advocate for this.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Putin is \u201cgambling with Russia\u2019s future\u201d in both social and economic terms.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- The consequences depend on whether Russia wins or loses, and on whether Ukraine survives or is dismembered.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- \u201c[P]eople in Washington have said very clearly . . . that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Putin is boxed in and can\u2019t really make a peace deal.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Leaders continue with an unwinnable war, against their country\u2019s interests, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Essentially, one side must get the other to change their mind and to convince them that striking a deal now is better than to continue fighting. \u201cIt’s the best explanation we have so far. But it\u2019s not satisfying.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Neither is likely to speed up a cease-fire.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- While unexpected, this Ukrainian battle victory is not the beginning of the end of the war.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n